Comments on: Poker Skill Or Just Luck?

By: doug

doug — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 05:21:21 +0000

Yes, a coin flips outcome is completely random. The point is that if you were flipping coins against a casino they would only pay you something like .9 to 1 in other words you’d put down 10$ on heads and when you win they pay you 9$. So yes you can win but if you play long enough say 10000 flips the head verses tail ratio is going to be around 5,000 5,000 which means that you,ve wagered 100,000 and won 90,000 for a net loss of 10,000. Does that mean the casino got lucky against you? No. The casino had a mathematical edge. All casino games are set up with a form of this edge against you.
In poker the casino doesnt care who wins because the money comes from the players. When you win it comes out of another players pocket. The casino takes a small portion of the pot which is called a “rake”. so essentially you’er just renting the seat from them. In poker you can be the “HOUSE” by making common sense decisions when others are making bad decisions. Or really good decisions when others are making good decisions. If you understand odds you would know how much you can call when your on the draw and still make money overtime. conversely if your the bettor you make the odds incorrect for draws and people will still call. They do get lucky a certain percentage of the time but when they lose you make that money back plus more when you bet correctly. This is just the most simple example of how poker does require skill. We all get the same cards over time. It becomes a waging war after that. Can you really say that people cannot make decisions that are essentially like giving money away at the table. I know they do. I have been beating poker for 3 years now. I have friends that have been beating the game for years. I know i make money just from the stupid stuff people do. Some people expose there cards every hand. I know it is a luck game but skill is the reason I have made money overtime. Poker is without a doubt a skill game. Tell me how there are professional poker players and no professional roulette players. Tell me ive been lucky for three years. Tell my friends they are lucky. Look at a player like Negreneaus winnings year in and year out. Tell me how You see a lot of the same players at final tables.

By: SJ

SJ — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 22:41:55 +0000

This “snippet” from the article is quite hilarious, they prove no point at all.

For example, replace the term “poker” with “coin flipping” into the article. The author would make the point that if a casino provided a means for “coin flipping” and for participants to bet on the outcome that it was skill since each player has the same chance of winning.

Yet in reality, a coin flip is 100% luck and no skill, so the author makes no point at all.

By: emil

emil — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 06:46:59 +0000

To me poker depends more on luck than skill.
The poker professionists earn money from the less experienced.

By: arjun

arjun — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 01:30:54 +0000

I have to say after playing online for a year and playing general poker for 4 years that poker is 60% luck and 40% skill for most players until they reach the professional stage where the skill level matters less since all other players are professionals and all play with odds.

Also I would say that to win the WSOP you would need more luck than skill, but to make the money consistently in every 2-3 WSOP would take skill. I would say small tournaments require more skill to win than 7k+ entrants one.

By: k0parsh3u

k0parsh3u — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 14:56:16 +0000

in fact: “When it is a beginner player against an experienced player it is about skill” should be “When it is a beginner player against an experienced player it looks to be about skill”

By: k0parsh3u

k0parsh3u — Sun, 16 Dec 2007 14:53:28 +0000

Joe said “This emperical evidence shows that skills play a bigger role than luck in Poker”
When it is a beginner player against an experienced player it is about skill but when there are two good poker players the game turn to be about luck
I am talking about online poker
Chan and other champs are not online poker champs I guess and there might be different rules
But if you play poker 4 many years you usually make money mostly because the newer players and they are a lot!
It’s not like you train on this, I train on this and the most skilled player here win, but it is more like comparing to golf or whatever imagine you are an average player and I just played this game yesterday for the first time..of course you will win but it is not about skill;
experienced player against unexperienced player is not really a skill game

By: Joe

Joe — Mon, 10 Dec 2007 05:15:11 +0000

I insist that poker is more about skills than luck.

First, it is not only about knowing the basic rules. It is also about ability to read people’s minds through their gestures, their patterns of betting…..etc.

Second, if luck plays a bigger role than skills, how could you explain the consistent performance of poker Hall of Famers like Doyle, Chan, Stu etc ???. Doyle has been playing poker for over 50 years and still keeps winning.
A lot of these veterans play pokers as their only career.
Johnny Chan got wife and kids in Las Vegas and all he does is playing pokers. There is no way anyone can get lucky for many many years. This emperical evidence shows that skills play a bigger role than luck in Poker.

By: Skeede Forsman

Skeede Forsman — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:05:31 +0000

I kind a love poker, but still I have to say that I think poker is more luck than skill. If two equally talented players play against each others, the luckier will win â€“ always. And this luck zone is much wider than in sports etc. Like if you know the basic strategies (there isn’t such complicated strategies in poker) and your opponent also knows those, then luck is quite a big factor.

I ones saw online player who made all-innâ€™s something like 15 â€“ 25 minutes straight (every hand) and won something like 85 % of those hands. But that was miracle, thatâ€™s not why I think poker is more luck than skill.

By: Jimmy

Jimmy — Sat, 10 Nov 2007 05:30:12 +0000

60% luck, 40% skill. It’s still mostly luck, since the long term is too long for anyone to experience. In events like the WSOP, the pro’s are the ones who can outplay people, be card dead and still take down pots, while having a decent run of luck. The amateurs like Yang, Gold, and Moneymaker have to rely on mainly luck.

By: k0parsh3u

k0parsh3u — Wed, 17 Oct 2007 00:31:38 +0000

There is one thing which is contradicting the affirmation poker is a game of skill:
each long run is made by short runs; if a pro got unlucky in the short run he can ge unlucky in the long run too; there is no better prove a pro player is a skilled player but the long run luck itself, which then remove the skill.
Mathematics works the same, every player get same cards as well, but there is a difference in getting the right cards at the right time or getting the right cards in the wrong moment—you might miss AA for about 2 hours then when you finally got it the only guy which did not preflop fold is the BB guy which will fold any bet you put; you loose allin with trips against flush then you win 2 allins with trips against weaker cards but the amount of money you win last 2 times will be much less then the allin you was loosing; this is making the affirmation that all players got the same luck irrelevant.
If you have a casino and want to make as many as possible players play the game the only way you can do this is by saying that poker is a game of skill and luck; if you remove 1 from the ecuation you half the number of players; it looks like a convenient way to fool all people play the game; some say casinos don’t win any money from poker…not if they have their (undetected) players on the tables…which let much space for interpretation then…making poker even worst (a made up game), and I observed one interesting thing about it (speaking about the honestity of poker houses): if you will try to make as many preflop allins as possible with good cards, if you loose go to higher stakes, you loose go to even higher stakes (to cover the losses and earn money, because mathematical theory says sooner or later you must win one allin) you might have the surprise loosing 20 allins one by one with AKs suited, AAs, QQs etc, try it online for example.
If I usually play X$ tables I make about 4-6 more money in about 2-3 weeks, playing 2-3 hours daily; then ALWAYS will have a bad day (maximum 2 days) then I will loose 3-4-6x money on the table with trips against trips, flush against stronger flush, and so on, 6 8 times in a row; this way the whole longrun winnings go away, you might be a longrun good player but the shortrun sessions are enough to f* your longrun winnings, this sounds more like “let’s get some money from that guy now, he had enough” then a normal thing.